Okay, I’ll admit it. I don’t typically watch television news. (Sorry Tony!) But when bad weather comes along,  seeing those weather maps is often exactly what I’m looking for.

I lived in a hurricane prone area for 15 years, weathering (eh-hem) many a storm and getting through some close misses. When you see that many big storms, you get used to the terminology (like storm surge) and develop a false confidence in your own ability to predict what’s coming.

But as you know, a gut feeling isn’t enough. In fact, meteorologists use a complex system of previous data and what they know about how these storms act to make predictions. What they’re saying, though, is that there is a chance something will happen. And what is that based on? Probability and statistics.

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